We need to check our excitement.

No, ChatGPT has not made Google obsolete. No, Artificial General Intelligence, and the end of human labour, is not around the corner. No, OpenAI haven’t automated human creativity.

ChatGPT’s ability to respond to prompts with plausible and seemingly authoritative content is remarkable. It’s also been suggested, with a little more merit, that its ability to churn out content makes it a threat to essay-based education, journalism and reporting. But even here concerns should be placed in context. The software is not capable of nuance. It also makes lots of mistakes.

We should not dismiss the impact of AI.

But we should also avoid the hype. This report takes a rational look at the development and possible future impact of this technology.

In the report we hope to do four things:

  • Contextualise what we’ve seen since the arrival of ChatGPT and other widely accessible LLMs.
  • Distinguish between the present and the future in terms of AI
  • Explain what ChatGPT (and other services like it) are and aren’t
  • Outline possible next steps for AI – both limitations and opportunities

The full report is only available to our Now & Next members, but a sneak preview can be downloaded below. If you’re interested in finding out more, drop us a line at subscribe@trajectorypartnership.com or click here.

About Now & Next

Now & Next is an easy to use, continually updated, online Horizon Scan. It uses the same tools and methodologies that we use at Trajectory to think about the future and answer the biggest questions about change.

The core elements are: a structured approach to thinking about long-term drivers of change, an adapted PEST trends framework, and hot-off-the-press monthly data so we don’t miss anything new.

Every trend, article, presentation and report comes with implications – because understanding what change means is what makes it useful.

Our members use it to develop strategy, find evidence for trends, monitor customer / consumer sentiment and face the future with more certainty.

 

Everyone has a stake in the future. What’s yours?