Trends Briefing: Polarisation, Protectionism and a PEST
The World in 2025
Thursday 30th January 2024
0900-1000
There are two major themes shaping the outlook for 2025. Domestically, our data reveals levels of consumer polarisation that we’ve never seen before. Internationally, deglobalisation continues at pace, as protectionism advances.
Polarisation and protectionism
A lot has happened in 2024. A year of elections produced a democratic wave that toppled or weakened almost every incumbent president, prime minister or party. Conflict in the middle east has escalated, with immediate, devastating impacts on those directly affected, and indirect impacts on everyone else. In the UK, we’ve left the acute phase of the cost-of-living crisis behind and moved into the longer and murkier chronic phase of higher prices and weak growth.
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Our Optimism Index suggests that consumers are ending 2024 in the same mood they started it. But this stability masks an incredible amount of polarisation. Some groups are starting 2024 flying, in consumer outlook terms. They’re spending, optimistic about the future, trusting and open to new experiences. Other groups have seen no improvement in their outlook for years. They’re starting 2025 mired in pessimism.
If the situation at home is divided, the situation around the world is deeply fragile. 2025 will start with the inauguration of a returning US president who will take our protectionist era to a new level with tariffs and threats. The new Labour government’s tasks in foreign policy are as immense as their challenges in domestic economic growth and public service delivery.
PEST: understanding the forces of change
This is a volatile and complex picture. To separate the signal from the noise and identify actionable, relevant implications for consumers, employers, campaigners, strategists and marketers our look ahead will use a PEST model to bring some structure to our foresight.
In addition to our two macro themes of Polarisation and Protectionism we’ll identify the political, economic, social and tech drivers that will shape 2025.
An Essential Briefing
Despite the panoply of challenge that we face, could we be optimistic about 2025?
Join us on January 30th 2025 for an essential Trends Briefing as we look ahead to all that next year has in store for us. As ever, our insights and foresights will come with implications for brands, businesses, policymakers and charities and draw from our Optimism Index survey of 18,000 people per year.
Register here to attend
Every month we host webinar looking in detail at a core trend, topic or issue. Although the briefing is free to attend, only our Now & Next members will have access to the presentation and data afterwards, alongside our library of macro trends, detailed reports and Optimism Index data. Click here to find out more about subscribing, request a demo and lock in access at 2024 prices.