Trends Briefing: Shift Work
Understanding the impact of changes in the way we work
Thursday 31st October 2024
0900-1000
During the first lockdown in 2020, more people worked at home than in their workplace.
This hasn’t happened since and is unlikely to have happened before: the sudden arrival of an novel airborne virus kept many of us at home at a time in history when technology allowed us to replicate – pretty successfully – our working processes. Many of us – it is important to acknowledge – never had the opportunity to change. Jobs in retail, transport, healthcare and education were far less likely to switch – and were more dangerous during covid as a result.
Gradually, vaccines were rolled out and restrictions rolled back and we went outside again. Many of us went back to the workplace, at least part of the time.
Many pandemic era shifts have since reverted, but the switch in working locations has proved more stubborn. And it remains as topical as ever. Last month, Amazon became the latest organisation to insist that its staff return to the office five days a week, arguing that the “advantages are significant… the last 15 months [working] in the office three days a week has strengthened our conviction.”
Amazon may be fighting against the current. In recent work exploring the present and future of real estate we’ve been struck by the renewed investor optimism about opportunities in retail and leisure, and their corresponding pessimism about offices. The two are linked. As people spend less time travelling into their offices, they spend more time at home and in their neighbourhoods, high streets and town centres.
Finally, our own data suggests that in the minds of workers, this is settled. For a year or two after the final lockdown the proportion of people who primarily worked from home drifted down. But in the last 12 months it has settled – roughly a quarter of the workforce primarily work from home, and increase of about five million people since before the pandemic.
What does this mean for employers and employees? Are the new-WFHers happier, or more productive? Who are they, and how are their lives different as a result of this change? And is the office really doomed?
We’ll explore all these questions, informed by exclusive data and our peerless analysis of the forces of change. As ever, our thoughts will come with implications for businesses, brands, charities and policymakers.
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