Trends Briefing: The Election, and Beyond

Nine questions (and some answers) about the election, and what it means for the future of the UK

Thursday 20th June 2024


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So, it’s election time.

For quite a long time, these have been close-run affairs. The contests in 2010 and 2017 produced hung parliaments, while 2015 looked like a hung parliament right up to the point when the Conservatives got a small majority. Even when the polls were indicating Conservative dominance in 2019 the muscle memory of Corbyn’s 2017 surprise left many expecting a closer result than actually transpired (an 80 seat Tory majority, in case you’d forgotten).

But this time, the polls are decisive, and many commentators see the result – a Labour majority – as something of an inevitability. Henry Hill, deputy editor of Conservative Home, describes a heavy Tory defeat as a ‘foregone conclusion’, while no less a psephologist than Professor Sir John Curtice himself has said that there is a ‘99% chance that Labour form the next government’.

If they’re right, then the big question about the result is answered. But it only raises more questions about what the result might mean for the future of the UK.

In our next trends briefing we’ll be exploring the state of the contest and the questions that the election will raise, including:

1. What issues are the public prioritising?
2. What does the future hold for a defeated Conservative Party?
3. What will happen to taxes?
4. What will happen to public services?
5. Will politics get slower?
6. Is this the first ‘post-TV’ election?
7. Will the UK get closer to the EU?
8. Will the public mood improve after the election?
9. Who’ll win the next election?

As ever, our analysis will come with implications for businesses, policymakers and strategists, and draw on hot-off-the-press insights from our regular opinion tracker, the Optimism Index.

Register here to attend

Every month we host webinar looking in detail at a core trend, topic or issue. The sessions are free to attend, but only our Now & Next members get access to the presentation slides and recording – along with the whole archive of Trajectory trends data and analysis – afterwards. For more information, click here.