The United States Presidential Election: One Year To Go

Thursday 31st October 2019


London EC1A 2FD

No political event generates global coverage, controversy and debate quite like the US Presidential Election, and while every four years we find ourselves faced with the ‘most important election in decades’, the election of 2020 is shrouded more deeply in uncertainty than many that have gone before it.

For the second election in succession, we cannot be certain of the individuals representing each of the major parties come November. Accusations of quid pro quo bribery in a telephone conversation between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has presented the current administration with its latest – but most serious – threat of impeachment.

The Democratic primary contest that bears more than a passing resemblance to the 2016 election cycle. Playing Hilary Clinton is front-runner and ex-Vice President Joe Biden, the experienced, ‘establishment’ candidate, while hot on his heels – in the Bernie Sanders role – is Elizabeth Warren, whose most eye-catching policy is a call for the break up of Big Tech followed by the actual Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris.

It’s here that the defining feature of the upcoming election emerges. US politics remain extremely polarised, and whether we see Biden, Warren or Sanders take on Trump (or Mike Pence), it looks likely that the electorate will be forced to choose between candidates whose differences on positions and policies on issues like technology, globalisation, healthcare and the country’s relationships with China and Russia, are without precedent in recent years. The United States is presented with a fork in the road, but this time round, the paths look more divergent than in any election in recent memory.

The path that the US chooses will have wide-ranging implications for countries, consumers and businesses around the world. How does the global fight to combat climate change look with four more years of Trump, compared to the election of Elizabeth Warren? Will China continue to grow as a leader of globalisation, boosted by their strategic advantage on technologies like 5G?

For the UK, Brexit remains the dominant issue of our time, and while Biden and Warren have remained focussed on domestic policy Trump has been a vocal supporter of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. With the shape of Brexit still unconfirmed, a UK-US trade deal has yet to materialise. While Trump retains an interest in weakening the EU, other candidates may return to President Obama’s position, and the UK could go to the “back of the queue”.

Join us for breakfast on Thursday 31st October as we explore some of the potential outcomes of the 2020 race, and the ways in which these outcomes will be felt on the international stage.

Please email Ruairi ( to reserve your complimentary place and join us for breakfast.

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